Voices: Joseph Lowery

Game 3 Predictions: Who will move on from Round One?

RoundOne-predictions

Joseph Lowery

Crystal ball? Check. MLS schedule open in the next tab? Check. My title as this year’s best MLS predictor? Double check.

Ahead of this weekend’s decisive Game 3s, I’m predicting how every Round One Best-of-3 Series will finish.

Which teams will book their spots in the Conference Semifinals? And which teams will see their Audi 2025 MLS Cup Playoffs dreams come to an abrupt end?

Let’s dig in.

CHARLOTTE FC vs. NEW YORK CITY FC

Predicted Winner: New York City FC

Charlotte FC haven’t been great in this Round One series. Actually, check that. Charlotte haven’t been great since Pep Biel got injured during Leagues Cup.

Don’t believe me? See for yourself here.

Their non-penalty xG differential has been dwindling for months. Not coincidentally, their struggles started to pop in the underlying numbers at almost the moment their Best XI-level No. 10 went down. For as much as Wilfried Zaha could be that ball-dominant threat for Charlotte this year, he largely hasn’t been. He was suspended for Charlotte’s Game 1 loss before starting and was only slightly more noticeable during a narrow Game 2 penalty shootout victory.

Charlotte don’t seem to have the horses in Biel’s absence. That's a huge problem.

New York City FC, for their part, do have the horses – at least relative to their Round One opponent. While Pascal Jansen has been incredibly conservative with his lineup choices through two games, he at least has game-changers like Alonso Martínez who can tilt the game towards his team.

NYCFC have more talent, more balance, and they’ve been the better team in this series. I don’t expect that to change in Game 3, even back on the road.

MINNESOTA UNITED FC vs. SEATTLE SOUNDERS FC

Predicted winner: Seattle Sounders FC

Now that was more like it from the Sounders. After a lackluster, scoreless opening loss in their series against Minnesota, Seattle looked like a different team for long stretches of Monday night’s emphatic 4-2 win.

In part, the Sounders were a different team: Danny Musovski started up top at the No. 9 while Jordan Morris moved into the right halfspace. With more players rotating between the lines, Seattle had much more success breaking through Eric Ramsay’s 5-4-1 block, to the tune of a three-goal first half. Cristian Roldan’s third-man runs out of Seattle’s double pivot posed an especially great challenge that the visitors had no answer for at Lumen Field.

Now heading back to Minnesota for Game 3, there’s little reason for Seattle head coach Brian Schmetzer to change his recipe. Ramsay, however, may want to do so given the lack of attacking threat shown by his team for most of Game 2. But due to fitness and personnel shortages, making those adjustments could prove difficult.

With more depth, quality and tactical answers, Seattle have the edge in this series.

FC CINCINNATI vs. COLUMBUS CREW

Predicted winner: FC Cincinnati

Let’s make one thing very clear: FC Cincinnati had a dreadful Game 2 of their Hell is Real matchup with the Columbus Crew on Sunday night, making sloppy errors on the ball and losing 4-0. They didn’t register a clear-cut shot, let alone a dangerous shooting chance. But there was one crucial moment in the first half that created the conditions for the Crew’s revenge-filled drubbing: Yuya Kubo’s red card.

Deciding to commit a red-card foul to stop a Columbus attack, Kubo’s first-half exit changed things from a “wow, the Crew look a little better than they did in Game 1, let’s see if they keep it up” sort of game to a “wow, this version of the Crew might be the best team MLS has ever seen” sort of game. Of course, we know this year’s Columbus team isn’t the best MLS has ever seen. It’s not even the best Columbus have seen. This 2025 Crew have allowed the most non-penalty xG and have the worst xG differential of any of Wilfried Nancy’s three Columbus outfits.

In short, the Crew aren’t nearly as good as they showed in a weird Game 2.

Instead, I’m inclined to think that Cincinnati will reset, be more physical between the lines against an undersized Columbus forward group, press their attacking talent advantage, and continue this series’ theme of the home team winning.

INTER MIAMI CF vs. NASHVILLE SC

Predicted winner: Inter Miami CF

It couldn’t happen twice in a row, could it?

By "it," of course, I mean "Inter Miami getting bounced in Round One." Despite Nashville’s more aggressive and clinical performance in their Game 2 victory, I can’t shake the feeling that Lionel Messi & Co. will put this series away in Game 3.

At this stage, Javier Mascherano and the club’s other strategic minds have two games’ worth of tape on the new 4-3-3 defensive structure B.J. Callaghan rolled out for this series. With the stated goal of Callaghan’s shape shift being to "keep the ball in the wide areas, not allow it through the middle," as per the Nashville coach via SixOneFive Soccer, Messi’s touch count dropped from 62 on Decision Day (before the structural swap) to 45 in Game 1 and 48 in Game 2. I don’t think that’s a coincidence.

While Miami aren’t above a few head-scratchers in their own third, it feels foolish to ignore their attacking firepower ahead of Game 3.

I back Inter Miami to find the weak points in Nashville’s defensive approach and outscore their Eastern Conference foes on Saturday night.

SAN DIEGO FC vs. PORTLAND TIMBERS

Predicted winner: San Diego FC

San Diego were seconds away from clinching a Conference Semifinal spot on Saturday night before a 98th-minute equalizer from Gage Guerra sent the Providence Park crowd into a frenzy. One penalty shootout later, and the Timbers had forced a Game 3.

It wasn’t an entirely undeserved result for Portland, either: with a very, very high press that was so bold as to leave a trio of defenders back defending against San Diego’s front three in man-to-man fashion, Phil Neville’s team got rewarded. The press worked for long spells, forcing turnovers high up the field that occasionally turned into shots for the Timbers.

Even factoring in Portland’s newfound defensive intensity, it’s difficult to picture anything other than a San Diego win in this weekend’s decider – and for a very specific reason. No team in MLS has been better at finding ways through an opposing high press than the newcomers. You can bet Mikey Varas and his staff are crunching the tape of the Timbers’ press and calculating how to beat it.

Based on an entire season of data, San Diego's buildup trouble in Game 2 was a bug, not a feature. Even with those troubles, they still nearly won on the road in one of the league’s most atmospheric venues.

All told, the safe money is on San Diego to advance.

Joseph Lowery -
@joeclowery

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