Voices: Joseph Lowery

Conference Semifinals next? How each team will win or lose Game 3

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Joseph Lowery

Half of the Conference Semifinals field is set.

The other half remains up for grabs, with eight teams competing in Game 3s this weekend for a place in the next round of the Audi 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs.

What does each team vying for playoff glory have to do to prevail? And what could go wrong for each club?

We’re diving into both of those questions, examining every team ahead of the decisive match in each Round One Best-of-3 Series.

LAFC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC

What has to go right for LAFC

They have to put their best players in positions to be their best players.

That means LAFC have to find moments to isolate Denis Bouanga in transition, feed Olivier Giroud with his back to goal, and activate their young, dynamic attackers on the right wing. If they’re not aggressive and vertical, that means they’re not taking anywhere near full advantage of the talent edge they have in the attack over Vancouver’s defensive personnel.

What could go wrong for LAFC

They could shoot themselves in the foot defensively, yet again.

The 5-1 regular season loss to Columbus. The Leagues Cup final loss to Columbus. The 4-2 loss against the Galaxy in September. The 3-0 loss to the Whitecaps last weekend. LAFC’s defensive work in big games has been, uh, spotty at best this season. If they opt out of marking Ryan Gauld on a throw-in or fall asleep in transition, they’ll be in big trouble.

What has to go right for Vancouver

They have to continue to punish LAFC’s biggest defensive weakness.

After a narrow loss in Game 1, Vanni Sartini went all-in by starting Fafà Picault opposite LAFC’s Kike Olivera, a winger-turned-wingback, and moving Ali Ahmed over to that same flank. It worked like a charm, with the 'Caps finding chance after chance down their left, with speed and know-how on their side. If Olivera keeps his spot at right wingback, Vancouver should exploit him with more direct movement. If Olivera is benched, it’ll be that much easier to hold firm defensively.

What could go wrong for Vancouver

They may not be able to stop Bouanga.

Even in what was a brutally disappointing Game 2 loss for LAFC, the Gabon international still found chances. It’s almost impossible to grind Bouanga to a halt. Especially if Vancouver try to push numbers into the gaps in LAFC’s defensive structure, they could be in for a tough time as their hosts transition the other way.

FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC

What has to go right for Cincinnati

They have to play through their Argentines.

If Lucho Acosta and Luca Orellano are firing, FC Cincinnati are hard to stop. So far in this series, though both players have directly contributed to goals, neither has been utilized quite enough. With a slew of long balls in Game 2, Acosta couldn’t stamp his mark on the match, while Orellano enjoyed his sixth-lowest touch count in any start this season. Find the Argentines, and success tends to follow.

What could go wrong for Cincinnati

They could lose the midfield battle again.

The biggest factor behind Cincy’s loss in Game 2 was their failure to match NYCFC in midfield. Nick Cushing’s team enjoyed a man advantage, with Santi Rodríguez pinching in from the left halfspace to act as the fourth player against Pat Noonan’s double pivot and No. 10. If they fail to control the midfield, NYCFC will make them pay just like they did on Saturday.

What has to go right for New York City

Alonso Martínez has to be sharp.

Because when he is, he does stuff like this to cap off a lovely possession sequence to see his team break into the lead. Note the killer pass and the killer finish:

If Martínez can be outlet, creator and finisher for NYCFC, they become an entirely different beast. The foundation is steady at the base of midfield, but if the attackers are creating notable advantages, life gets so much easier for the 2021 MLS Cup champs.

What could go wrong for New York City

They could misread the recipe on the road.

That’s what happened in Game 1, when NYCFC fell 1-0 in Cincinnati. With Andrés Perea starting over Maxi Moralez, Cushing prioritized ground coverage over possession value. It didn’t work. Cincy wildly outplayed and outshot the visitors. But the idea had merit: Perea’s mobility should’ve been an asset. If Cushing opts for Moralez, it becomes harder for NYCFC to contain Cincy. If he opts for Perea, their attack takes a hit. Finding the right personnel recipe is crucial.

Orlando City SC vs. Charlotte FC

What has to go right for Orlando

Martín Ojeda and Facundo Torres have to be sharp.

In Game 1, Orlando City’s dynamic attacking pairing was just that: dynamic. Ojeda helped open the game with his vision and off-ball work, while Torres’ movement and incision from the right halfspace sapped energy from Charlotte’s defensive block. On the road in Game 2, those two weren’t nearly as effective. Despite having more possession as a team, Orlando City created just 0.3 xG, according to FBref, down from 1.6 xG in the first outing. If their stars aren’t performing, the Lions will struggle.

What could go wrong for Orlando

Kristijan Kahlina could go supernova.

One of the big concerns for Oscar Pareja’s team is they play well enough to win in Game 3, generate a bunch of high-quality shots, and it still just… doesn’t matter. Kristijan Kahlina has been the eraser in goal in 2024, saving more goals above expected than any other 'keeper, according to FBref. He saved two penalties in the Game 2 shootout. Kahlina has the power to sway this series to Charlotte in the blink of an eye.

What has to go right for Charlotte

They have to be solid in the box.

Because they sure weren’t in Game 1:

Despite having three center backs on the field in Andrew Privett, Adilson Malanda and Tim Ream, who defends as a left back, Dean Smith’s team has struggled to control their own 18 over the last third of the season. Back in front of their home crowd in Game 2, Charlotte put together one of their tightest defensive displays of the season, locking down Orlando for nearly 90 minutes. The talent is there for this team to be horrible to play against. Let’s see if the execution is there, too.

What could go wrong for Charlotte

The attack might not have enough juice.

They forced a Game 3, but Charlotte have scored exactly zero goals in two playoff games so far. They’ve been overly sluggish in transition and haven’t maximized their final third entries, though Smith’s more vertical front three for Game 2 had a greater impact than his front three for the loss in Orlando. There are some big personnel questions awaiting Smith on Saturday.

Inter Miami CF vs. Atlanta United

What has to go right for Miami

Not a lot.

That’s how good Inter Miami are. If Lionel Messi has a rare off-night, there are more than a few other qualified individuals who can help pick up the slack. The same is true in reverse, where Messi can take a bad evening for his teammates and turn it into a locker room celebration. They’re not invincible, but it takes a lot for Miami to lose – that’s why we haven’t seen it happen very often in 2024.

What could go wrong for Miami

They could concede a couple of soft goals.

That’s what happened in Atlanta in Game 2. The first concession came on the second phase of a set piece and the second came after Miami failed to win the ball in their own half and then allowed Xande Silva to shoot unopposed. Even in their record-breaking regular season, Inter Miami gave up chances. If they ship a couple of soft goals early in the game, things could change quickly.

What has to go right for Atlanta

They have to execute almost perfectly in every phase (and hope for a bit of luck).

When you’re up against some of the biggest game-changers this sport has ever seen, you have to nail your game plan. Atlanta will have to be air-tight defensively, lightning-quick on the break and hope the finishing gods are in their favor. Upsets can happen – we’ve sure seen that already in this postseason! – but it’s hard to make them happen without a seamless on-field coordination.

What could go wrong for Atlanta

Saba Lobjanidze could get exposed at right wingback.

Playing as the outside back on the right side of Rob Valentino’s back five, Lobjanidze is very much still adjusting to having more defensive responsibility in this year’s playoffs. Messi and Jordi Alba exposed some naive positioning from the Georgian in Game 2 and will, no doubt, be looking to isolate the attack-minded defender in the series decider. Lobjanidze, like the rest of his teammates, can’t afford to make many mistakes in Game 3.

Joseph Lowery -
@joeclowery

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