It’s almost here!
The 2024 MLS regular season concludes on Saturday, with 14 Decision Day games taking place across the league. Audi MLS Cup Playoffs spots will be won. Hosting rights will be awarded. Seeding will be determined. Fun will be had.
Today, I’m diving into a handful of the most important items up for grabs on Decision Day – and predicting which teams will grab them.
Onwards.
While the Western Conference postseason field is settled and the top seven spots in the Eastern Conference have already been decided, those four teams enter Saturday fighting to turn their playoff dreams into reality.
If you want to know all of the nitty-gritty playoff-clinching scenarios, I’ll refer you here. The summary, though, is this: if D.C. United or CF Montréal earn at least a point this weekend, they’ll both be heading to the postseason. If one or both of those teams falter, the door opens for Philadelphia and Atlanta with a win and some help.
So, who’s actually going to end up above the line when the dust settles on Saturday? I’m sticking with the two teams starting the weekend in the playoff field: D.C. and Montréal.
Between their existing three-point leads over Philly and Atlanta, the fact both teams are playing at home, and that they both have easier opponents than the Union and the Five Stripes, it looks like the current top nine will stay as the top nine.
I’ll take D.C. getting a result against Charlotte and Montréal getting something against New York City over Philadelphia beating Cincinnati and Atlanta taking down Orlando on the road (and getting the right bounces in the other games).
I’ll skip to the end here. The answer is “yes”!
Heading into their game against the Columbus Crew earlier this month, Inter Miami knew they would have to win all three of their final regular-season matches to eclipse the 73-point tally assembled by the New England Revolution in 2021. Drake Callender had to make a massive penalty kick save at Lower.com Field to secure three points against the Crew. A few days later, Miami needed a 93rd minute-winner from Leo Campana to collect a trio of points in Toronto.
It wasn’t pretty, but now all that stands in the way of the Supporters' Shield winners (with 71 points in hand) and history is the team that made it three years ago: the Revs.
Outside of pride and the burning desire to spoil the party, New England have nothing to play for on Saturday. They’ve long since been eliminated from playoff contention. They just lost 4-0 to the Crew on Saturday. They’ve only won once since August. They’ve lost six of their last nine. They have the worst xGD in MLS, according to FBref.
Messi will score a brace. Miami will win. And celebrations will ensue.
Thanks to LAFC’s 2-1 win at Vancouver Whitecaps FC on Sunday, the top spot in the Western Conference is yet to find a home.
The LA Galaxy, who enter their Decision Day clash at Houston Dynamo FC with a three-point edge on their cross-town rivals, can clinch the No. 1 seed with…
- A win or draw
- An LAFC loss or draw
- Some tiebreaker shenanigans
LAFC, who sit three points back of the Galaxy ahead of their home meeting with the San Jose Earthquakes, can clinch the No. 1 seed with...
- A win, Galaxy loss and a little tiebreaker massaging
Playing this year’s Wooden Spoon winners on the final day is a huge asset for LAFC – as is how the Galaxy often end up at one extreme or the other with their results. Greg Vanney’s team hasn’t drawn a regular-season game since May 18. It’s been either three points or no points for the Galaxy. If it’s no points against Houston, LAFC have every chance to sneak into that No. 1 slot.
Still, my money is on the Galaxy. A meeting with Houston doesn’t look nearly as imposing as it did a month ago, even if Héctor Herrera is fit enough to play. The Galaxy control their destiny and should end up hosting all of their playoff games, potentially even MLS Cup presented by Audi on Dec. 7.
With Miami, Columbus and Cincinnati already locked into the top three seeds in the East, it’s up to Orlando and New York City to duke it out for the final home-field advantage slot in the first round.
Up against a desperate Atlanta United team, life won’t be easy for Orlando City. But when you combine their two-point edge on NYCFC and how New York City have a difficult road trip against another desperate team in CF Montréal, all signs start pointing towards the Lions here. Oscar Pareja’s team has the second-best xGD per game in MLS since the beginning of July, according to American Soccer Analysis.
They’ll ride that hot streak right into hosting rights in Round One.
[boxing announcer voice]
Ladies and gentlemen, in one corner, we have the Vancouver Whitecaps. In the other corner, we have Minnesota United. One of these two fighters will join the Portland Timbers in the West’s Wild Card match. The other will launch themselves straight into Round One. Who will end Decision Day in the top seven out West? Find out on MLS Season Pass on Apple TV.
With their recent string of poor results, the Timbers are stuck in Wild Card territory regardless of how they fare vs. Seattle Sounders FC. It’s all about hosting rights for Phil Neville’s team. However, who Portland will be playing next week is still very much up for discussion.
Enjoying their two-point lead on Vancouver, Minnesota are my pick to finish in the top seven. They’ve got an easier game (playing at St. Louis, compared to the 'Caps, who play at Real Salt Lake) and far more of the clinching scenarios work in their favor. The Loons are also red-hot: they're 5W-1L-1D in their last seven and just beat the Whitecaps in their most recent game.
Vanni Sartini’s team needs a win and some help to climb out of the Wild Card spots, and I don’t think they’ll get it.
This last one is a gimme, folks.
With Christian Benteke’s four-goal lead over his closest competition heading into Decision Day, the powers-that-be might as well slap the shipping label on the package and send the Golden Boot presented by Audi to the Belgian’s home. Benteke’s 23 goals put him four ahead of both Denis Bouanga and Cucho Hernandez, five above Luis Suárez, and six ahead of Lionel Messi, Chicho Arango and Dániel Gazdag. The award will belong to him.
It’s truly amazing what Benteke has done on a middling D.C. United team this season. He’s nearly doubled his goals per 90 from last season (from 0.45 to 0.83), his xG is up, his chance creation numbers are up, and D.C.’s overall play is up as a result.
With Benteke signed through at least 2025, it’s up to D.C.’s new front-office leadership to surround him with talent as soon as possible. The No. 9 is aging gracefully, but his peak won’t last forever.
